Home Money on USA Cashed in a 4-1 Rout

Caesars Sports called the United States a loser on its own World Cup opener, then watched a 4-1 win cash the home money it had tried to fade. Kickoff at Los Angeles Stadium in Inglewood was 9 p.m. ET on June 12, 2026, on FOX, and the public had already chosen a side.

Mark Bickerdike, Caesars’ head of soccer trading, said the draw was the result the house still needed. Paraguay never became the other half of that bet.

A Losing Ticket Before Kickoff

On June 11, a day before the Group D opener, Caesars posted a three-way moneyline of United States -110, Paraguay +305, and Draw +235. That price is 90 minutes plus stoppage only. Extra time does not exist in the group stage.

Bickerdike compared the board to Mexico’s tournament opener against South Africa the night before. Mexico won 2-0 at Estadio Azteca. The United States, he said, sat in the same place on his sheet: a position the book did not want to win.

Similar to Mexico, the USA is a loser on the match for us. That will not change in any way, shape or form. Draw is looking like the most ideal outcome. Although interestingly, we have taken more wagers on the Draw than on Paraguay.

Mark Bickerdike, Caesars Sports head of soccer trading

He added that he still expected the draw to be the best result at kickoff. Other shops never even made the hosts a minus number. BetMGM opened the same three-way at USA +125, Paraguay +165, and Draw +225, a near-pick’em that moved toward the co-hosts as the week went on.

By 7:30 p.m. ET on June 12, 90 minutes before the first ball, SuperBook had the United States at +105, Paraguay at +295, and the draw at +225. The number got shorter because the tickets would not stop.

84 Percent of Bets Sat on the Hosts

SuperBook vice president John Murray said the ticket count was about 9-to-1 on the United States and still growing, with the dollars even heavier at 10-to-1 plus. “Every bet I see is USA +105,” he said. Straight bets were only part of it. The USA three-way was also landing in parlays, and there was money on the Over.

Caesars posted its own splits on the afternoon of the match, a few hours before kickoff. The draw and Paraguay had been close enough for Bickerdike to notice the draw tickets first. By then they were tied, and neither was the bet.

CAESARS SPORTSBOOK MATCH SPLITS

Handle is the money actually wagered. Almost nineteen dollars in twenty sat on the co-hosts, which is why Caesars had spent two days already calling the United States a losing ticket.

https://x.com/CaesarsSports/status/2065560120822730788

DraftKings showed the same 84 percent of bets on the United States. Hard Rock Bet said more than 90 percent of the money on the match backed the Americans. BetMGM said the opener drew 1.5 times the action of the next-busiest game of the first week, Brazil against Morocco.

Dominic Hammond, senior vice president of sports at Caesars Digital, later said USA-Paraguay was the highest soccer handle the company had ever taken, with a 55 percent gap down to Brazil-Morocco. The market was not arguing. It was piling on.

The Seventh Minute Ended the Draw

U.S. coach Mauricio Pochettino sent out the June 12 starting eleven in Los Angeles with Matt Freese in goal, Tim Ream at the back, Tyler Adams in midfield, and Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun up front. Paraguay coach Gustavo Alfaro, whose side was in a World Cup for the first time since 2010, started Orlando Gill, captain Gustavo Gómez, Miguel Almirón, and Antonio Sanabria.

A crowd of 70,492 filled Los Angeles Stadium. The house needed 90 scoreless, or at least shared, minutes. It got six.

HOW THE 4-1 WAS BUILT

1. 7th minute: Pulisic splits the defense and finds Weston McKennie; Damián Bobadilla turns it in for an own goal. FIFA timed the strike at 6:48.
2. 31st minute: Pulisic again, this time a cut-back that Balogun finishes for 2-0.
3. 45+5: Malik Tillman slips Balogun through; the striker beats two men and hits the top corner for 3-0 at the break.
4. 73rd minute: Halftime sub Mauricio pulls one back, assisted by Julio Enciso.
5. 90+8: Substitute Gio Reyna, found by Alex Freeman, curls in the fourth from the edge of the box.

Halftime was 3-0. Full time was 4-1. FIFA logged 16 shots to 9 and a 59 percent share of the ball for the United States, with 28 percent for Paraguay and 13 percent in contest. Shots on target were 6-1. The Over, which SuperBook had at 2 with the Over juiced to -120 late, cashed as well. Five goals is not a draw, and it is not a 1-0 that a loaded favorite book can live with.

Concacaf called it the first four-goal U.S. World Cup match, and the largest U.S. winning margin in the tournament. The only earlier three-goal wins were 3-0 against Belgium and 3-0 against Paraguay in 1930. Balogun became the second American to score twice in a World Cup game, after Bert Patenaude’s hat trick against, of all teams, Paraguay in that same 1930 tournament. It was Balogun’s 10th goal for the United States.

In his first comments after the brace, Balogun told FIFA, “It’s an amazing occasion. It’s an amazing night and something I dreamed of for a long time.” Alfaro did not dress it up. “They dominated tactically, technically and physically as well,” he said. “This team is a complex challenge because they have answers to everything you throw at them.”

What Books Needed From a Home Opener

The house was not asking for Paraguay to spoil the night in public. Murray said the SuperBook could not even root for a United States loss. The polite ask was a stalemate. Seamus Magee, BetMGM’s trading manager, put both long shots in the same bucket and admitted the slips behind them.

Paraguay or Draw would be a massive result for the house. There are going to be a lot of slips with USA moneyline, Christian Pulisic to score anytime, Over 2.5 goals etc.

Seamus Magee, BetMGM trading manager

WHAT THE HOUSE WANTED, AND WHAT HIT

• The draw: Caesars named it the ideal result on June 11; it never led, and it was gone at 6:48.
• Paraguay: +305 at Caesars and +295 at SuperBook, with only 3.4 percent of Caesars handle, and a 1-4 loss.
• A low USA win: A 1-0 would have paid the moneyline and likely the Under; 4-1 paid the moneyline, the Over, and the Pulisic-and-Balogun parlays Magee feared.
• No star props: Pulisic built the first two goals, Balogun scored twice, and Reyna finished it. The popular names all cashed something.

Pulisic left at halftime after a kick on the calf. Pochettino said the staff did not want to take a risk. The scoreboard had already done the damage. A home opener is supposed to be a party. For a book sitting on 93.2 percent United States handle, it is a liability with a national anthem.

Paraguay’s Price Went Almost Untouched

The forgotten number on the board was not even the draw. It was Paraguay, tied with the draw on Caesars tickets and matching it on handle at 3.4 percent. Alfaro’s team had been priced as a live dog when BetMGM first posted +165. By game night that number was +295 and +305, and almost nobody took it.

That price existed because Paraguay does not give games away cheap. Alfaro sits them in a compact shape and asks the other side to break it. The United States did, early, and often: 53 touches in the Paraguay box, a U.S. World Cup high in the detailed-record era that started in 1966, above the old mark of 36 against Iran in 1998 and Algeria in 2010.

The 4-1 still left Paraguay with two group games and a path that the 8 percent of tickets never had to think about. Bettors who wanted the upset paid +305 and got nothing. Bettors who wanted the stalemate paid +235 and got nothing. The only tickets that printed were the ones the house had been trying to dodge since June 11.

Belgium Finally Paid the House Back

The opener did not scare money off the United States. It invited more. Bickerdike said the 4-1 was “a really good performance in the first game,” and that Caesars then saw more action on the United States to win the tournament and on Balogun to win the Golden Boot. The U.S. future shortened from +5000 to +4000, co-10th with Belgium and Mexico, still miles from France at +400 and Spain at +500.

Before the Australia match, Bickerdike called the flow “one-way traffic very much leaning toward the USA.” He still wanted a draw for that one-off, then allowed that a low-scoring United States win would not be the worst result. What he hoped to avoid was “a comprehensive USA win, with Pulisic and Balogun scoring.” That sentence is a recap of June 12.

GROUP D AFTER THREE MATCHES

The United States beat Australia 2-0 in Seattle, then lost 3-2 to Türkiye and still won the group. The same public that hammered Paraguay kept coming. FanDuel said the first two U.S. games each set a company record for a soccer match. The round of 16 against Belgium finally turned the sheet: Belgium won 4-1, and the one-way home book that started on June 12 was settled the other way.

Night one was never a puzzle. Caesars needed a draw, SuperBook said it out loud, and 93.2 percent of the dollars still sat on the United States. The hosts scored four times, the draw died in the seventh minute, and the ticket the public came to place got paid.

Frequently Asked Questions

When Did the USMNT Last Play Paraguay Before the 2026 World Cup?

The United States beat Paraguay 2-1 in a friendly on November 15, 2025, at Subaru Park in Chester, Pennsylvania. Gio Reyna scored in the 4th minute, Alex Arce answered in the 10th, and Balogun won it in the 71st, a rehearsal the World Cup match then copied at a higher volume.

Who Is the Oldest U.S. Player to Appear at a World Cup?

Tim Ream, at 38 years and 250 days old on June 12, 2026, became the oldest player to represent the United States in a World Cup. He also led the match with 23 line-breaking passes, the most by any player in the tournament to that point.

How Accurate Was Chris Richards Passing Against Paraguay?

Center back Chris Richards completed all 83 of his attempted passes. Concacaf said that was the highest total ever logged with a 100 percent completion rate in a World Cup match in the detailed-record era that began in 1966.

Did Paraguay Advance From Group D in 2026?

Yes. After the 4-1 loss, Paraguay beat Türkiye 1-0, drew 0-0 with Australia, and finished third on 4 points. That was enough to reach the round of 32, where Alfaro’s side beat Germany 1-1 (4-3 on penalties) before losing 0-1 to France in the round of 16.

Disclaimer: This article is news reporting and analysis of a completed World Cup match and the betting market around it. It is for information only and is not betting advice, a tip, or a recommendation to wager on soccer or any other sport. Anyone considering a bet should check the laws where they live and speak with a licensed gambling counselor or a qualified financial professional before risking money. Odds, handle splits, and tournament results here reflect the named books, FIFA, Concacaf, and U.S. Soccer as published around June 12, 2026, and later official records, and those figures can differ by shop and by the time of day they were posted.